MLB moneyline · paper-only research experiment

Market signals before the story gets clean.

Every line has a heartbeat.

VigPulse studies how MLB moneylines move, logs paper entries against them, and publishes every graded result with the closing-line value attached. The record below is small, early, and unflattering in places. It is published in full anyway, because that is the only version worth reading.

Graded: 33
Record: 9W-24L
Paper units: +2,417.5u
Pre-game CLV: +4.93%

Paper only — no money staked. Pre-game CLV is 6/6 across just 6 entries, which is far too small a sample to demonstrate an edge.

Open the ledger See the Pulse demo

Heartbeat — illustrative demoSample data

Board activity indexRepricing 65-100Active 35-64Quiet 0-34

Board state: Active
Activity index: 61/100
Markets sampled: 4
Median half-life: 9.5 min

Invented sample data on a fixed snapshot. No market feed is connected to this site and these values never change. About this demo

What it is

A question with a measurable answer

The question is narrow: can a systematic read of market movement find prices better than where the market closes, often enough and by enough to matter? That has an answer, and the answer is measured with closing line value rather than with wins.

Watch

how prices move

Track how a moneyline moves across several books, remove the margin from every price, and record which book moved first and whether the rest followed. Movement with a known cause and movement without one are not the same evidence.

Grade

against the close

Log an entry at a price and a time, then compare it against the de-vigged closing price. That comparison is the scoreboard, because it produces a reading on every entry rather than only on the ones that settle well.

Publish

all of it

Every graded entry goes on the results page, including the losses and the fields that were never recorded. There is no pagination, no filter, and no sort control, because each one would make a subset possible.

The proof

The record, without the flattering framing

These four numbers are computed from the published ledger every time the site is built. None of them is typed into this page.

Graded entries: 33
Record: 9W-24L
Paper units: +2,417.5u
Pre-game CLV: +4.93%

Why the unit total is the least meaningful number here

More entries lost than won. The total is positive because a handful of longshots landed at meaningful size — removing the three largest winners takes 2,725 units out of it. A total driven by three results is a statement about those three results.

The closing-line-value figure is the more useful signal and it rests on 6 pre-game entries. That is not a result. It is barely a hint.

Read every row How it was recorded

The platform

What is on this site

Three of these are real and free. The rest are demonstrations of a product concept, labelled on every screen.

Current · real dataPublic ledgerEvery graded paper entry with entry price, closing price, result, units, and CLV. Missing fields shown as Not recorded.Current · freeBetting math toolsEight tested calculators: no-vig, hold, expected value, Kelly, CLV, hedging, promo value, and odds conversion.Current · freeAcademyPlain-language explainers on vig, fair prices, why lines move, sample size, and bankroll math.Illustrative demoPulse boardThe signature demo: board activity, movement velocity, divergence, reversal, stale books, and edge half-life.Illustrative demoOpportunitiesA filterable board of sampled markets with state, score, edge, and the reasoning behind each label.Current · documentationMethodologyThe full pipeline from raw prices to a BET, WAIT, or PASS label, and what the method cannot do.

The demo

Three words, and what they are not

The demonstration screens label every sampled market with one of three analytic states. In the current sample of 4 markets, 1 clears the threshold — which is roughly the ratio a real board produces.

BET

The estimated edge clears the playable threshold and has held long enough to be treated as signal rather than noise.

WAIT

There is an apparent edge, but it is inside the uncertainty band, moving quickly, or resting on a single disagreeing book.

PASS

No edge survives de-vigging, or the market has already absorbed whatever the model saw.

These are descriptions, not instructions

A row labelled BET means a demo model's estimated edge cleared a demo threshold on invented prices. There is no wager available anywhere on this site, no selection is published, and nothing here is betting advice.

Objections first

The awkward questions

Answered here rather than buried, because these are the questions worth asking of anything in this category.

Does this actually win?

Unknown, and the honest answer will stay unknown for a long time. The record is 9W-24L across 33 graded paper entries. The unit total is positive because a few longshots landed, not because the win rate is good.

What is the catch?

The sample is tiny, most entries were logged after first pitch, and the book each price came from was never recorded. Every one of those weaknesses is documented on the results methodology page rather than left for you to find.

Are picks for sale?

No. Nothing on this site is for sale, there is no checkout, and no selections are published or shared. Picks will not be sold at any future tier either.

Is any of this live?

No. This site is a static export. The product screens are invented sample data on a fixed snapshot and are labelled as such on every page. The only real data is the published ledger.

Why MLB only?

Depth over breadth. Baseball produces a large number of gradeable events daily, which is the fastest way to accumulate evidence. Every other sport on this site is explicitly roadmap.

Why measure CLV instead of profit?

Profit over a few dozen bets is close to pure noise. Closing line value produces a reading on every entry, so it accumulates evidence far faster — though six pre-game readings is still not enough to conclude anything.