About

A small experiment, published in full

VigPulse is a market-research project on MLB moneylines. It runs on paper, it publishes every graded entry, and it is early enough that the honest description of its results is: not enough data yet.

Current capabilityThis page describes what VigPulse actually does today: MLB moneyline, paper-only, with a public ledger.

Stage: Paper experiment
Scope: MLB moneyline
Graded entries: 33
Money at risk: None

What it is

A question, not a product claim

The question VigPulse exists to answer is narrow: can a systematic read of market movement identify prices that are better than where the market eventually closes, often enough and by enough to matter?

That question has a measurable answer, and the measurement is closing line value rather than profit. Profit over a few dozen bets is close to pure noise. CLV produces a reading on every entry, so it accumulates evidence faster.

Graded: 33
Record: 9W-24L
Paper units: +2,417.5u
Pre-game CLV: +4.93%

Read the sample size before the numbers

6 pre-game entries is not a result. It is barely a hint. A positive average across six entries is entirely consistent with having no edge at all. The figures above are published because hiding them would be worse, not because they demonstrate anything yet.

Standards

What this site will not do

These are constraints on the project, and they are the reason several pages here are less impressive than they could be.

No selling picks

Nothing is for sale. There is no paid tier, no locked content, and no checkout anywhere on this site. If that changes it will be announced plainly rather than discovered.

No invented capability

Sports, books, markets, and features that do not exist are labelled roadmap or preview rather than shown as working. The product demos on this site are sample data on a fixed snapshot and say so on every screen.

No selective reporting

The ledger publishes every graded entry, including the ugly ones and the ones where a field was never recorded. Fields that were not captured read Not recorded rather than being filled in after the fact.

Who it is for

People who want to check the working

This is aimed at readers who find market structure interesting and who are more persuaded by a published measurement method than by a screenshot of a winning slip.

If you are evaluating VigPulse

Start with the ledger and then read how it is recorded. The second page is the one that tells you whether the first page means anything.

If you are here to learn

The academy and calculators are useful independently of whether this experiment works. The math is standard and the tools are free.