Academy

Market structure, in plain language

Seven explainers covering the concepts the rest of this site depends on: where the margin lives, how to remove it, why prices move, what books are actually managing, how closing line value is measured, and why a small sample proves so little. Free, no signup, no picks.

Current capabilityThis page describes what VigPulse actually does today: MLB moneyline, paper-only, with a public ledger.

Articles: 7
Topics: 4
Total reading: 35 min
Cost: Free

Reading order

If you read them in order, each one uses the last

The topic groups below are for finding a specific idea again. This is the path through them.

The seven explainers in dependency order, with what each one is for.
#	Article	Read	Why it is here	Apply it
01	What the vig actually isMarket structure	4 min	Start here. Until you can see the margin in a price, nothing else on this site means very much.	Book hold calculator
02	Removing the vig to find a fair priceMarket structure	5 min	Removing that margin is the first operation in every calculation VigPulse performs.	No-vig fair price calculator
03	Why lines moveMovement	5 min	A fair price is a moving target. This is what moves it, and what each kind of move implies.	Movement demo
04	How books manage riskMarket structure	4 min	The other side of the same question: what the operator is trying to do when it changes a number.	Market board demo
05	Closing line value, and why it is the honest scoreboardMeasurement	5 min	The measurement this whole project is graded on, and the reason profit is the weaker scoreboard.	CLV calculator
06	Probability, variance, and how little a small sample provesMeasurement	6 min	How little a few dozen results prove — including the few dozen results published on this site.	The published sample
07	Bankroll, Kelly, and the case for staking lessRisk	6 min	What to do about all of it, and the case for staking less than the arithmetic suggests.	Kelly calculator

Market structure

How a price is built

3 articles in this topic.

Market structure · 4 minWhat the vig actually isWhy the two sides of a market add up to more than 100 percent, and what that overround costs you per bet.Market structure · 5 minRemoving the vig to find a fair priceHow to strip the book margin out of a two-way or three-way market and get a probability you can actually compare against.Market structure · 4 minHow books manage riskLimits, holds, line shading, and account restrictions are the mechanics behind the prices you see.

Measurement

How you find out whether you were right

2 articles in this topic.

Measurement · 5 minClosing line value, and why it is the honest scoreboardWins and losses are mostly noise over small samples. CLV measures whether you bought a price better than the market's final answer.Measurement · 6 minProbability, variance, and how little a small sample provesWhy a 33-bet record tells you almost nothing, and what sample size would be needed to tell you something.

Movement

Why the number changes

1 article in this topic.

Movement · 5 minWhy lines moveInformation, money, and risk management all move prices, and they do not mean the same thing.

Risk

What to stake, and what it costs to be wrong

1 article in this topic.

Risk · 6 minBankroll, Kelly, and the case for staking lessWhat the Kelly criterion actually optimises, why full Kelly is too aggressive in practice, and what happens when your edge estimate is wrong.

Practice

Every concept here has something to run it on

Reading about de-vigging is not the same as de-vigging something. The calculators are free, run in your browser, and send nothing anywhere.

Calculators

Current

Eight working tools: odds conversion, no-vig fair price, book hold, expected value, Kelly staking, closing line value, hedging, and promo expected value. Each validates what you type and explains what the answer means.

Open the tools →

A real sample to argue with

Current

The published ledger is 33 graded paper entries, 9W-24L, with 6 pre-game closing-line readings. It is a good exercise in exactly how little a sample that size can support.

Open the ledger →

The pipeline these ideas feed

Current

The methodology page walks the seven stages between a screen of prices and a decision, using the vocabulary these articles establish.

Read the methodology →

Scope

What these articles will not do

This is an academy, not a course with an outcome attached.

Picks: None
Signup required: No
Paid tier: None
Guaranteed outcome: None

Understanding the math does not make anyone a winner

Everything explained here is standard market structure. It is the vocabulary, not an edge. Knowing how to remove the vig tells you what a price implies; it says nothing about whether your own estimate of the outcome is any good, and the estimate is the whole problem.

Nothing on these pages is betting advice or encouragement to wager. If gambling is causing you harm, the responsible gambling page lists help resources.