VigPulse

Movement · 5 min read

Why lines move

Information, money, and risk management all move prices, and they do not mean the same thing.

Current · free explainerThis article explains publicly known market structure. Worked examples use round numbers chosen so the arithmetic can be checked by hand — they are not prices from any market. Nothing here is betting advice, and no VigPulse formula is published.
Topic
Movement
Reading time
5 min
Contains picks
No
Cost
Free

A price change is not self-explanatory. The same two-cent move can mean three completely different things, and telling them apart is most of the analytical work.

Information

A lineup is posted, a starter is scratched, weather turns. Information moves are usually fast, usually happen across many books at once, and usually stick. In baseball, scheduled lineup releases are the single most predictable repricing trigger.

Money

A book takes a large or well-respected bet and adjusts. These moves often start at one or two books before spreading, which is why the order in which books move carries information that the final price does not.

Risk management

A book is over-exposed on one side and shades the price to attract the other, regardless of what it believes about the outcome. These moves can look identical to information moves and mean nothing about the true probability.

Reversals

A market that moves and then retraces through its starting point is usually telling you the first move was wrong, was a limit adjustment, or was a single bettor rather than a signal. A reversal is a reason to lower confidence, not to act faster.

Note

Movement speed matters as much as direction. An edge that takes an hour to appear is a different object from one that appears and disappears in ninety seconds, even if the price change is identical.

Run it yourself

Current

Velocity, first movers, reversals, and divergence on illustrative sample data.

Movement demo

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Where this is used on the site

  • Methodology — the seven stages between prices and a decision, in this vocabulary.
  • Results — every graded row of the public paper record, with CLV where it is meaningful.
  • Results methodology — how each row is captured and graded, including the gaps.

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