MLB · Run line · Illustrative demo
BOS -1.5
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays. The board is showing +138 against a de-vigged fair estimate of +128 and a sharp consensus of +130. The demo model scores this 82 out of 100 and labels it BET.
Price history
de-vigged probability spacePlotted in implied-probability space rather than raw American odds. American odds jump across the -100/+100 boundary, so a chart drawn directly on them distorts distances; the axis is labelled back in American odds so it still reads like a betting chart.
| Minutes before snapshot | Board | Model fair | Sharp consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | +145 | +133 | +134 |
| 50 | +145 | +132 | +134 |
| 40 | +144 | +132 | +133 |
| 30 | +142 | +131 | +133 |
| 25 | +142 | +130 | +132 |
| 20 | +141 | +130 | +132 |
| 15 | +140 | +129 | +131 |
| 10 | +139 | +129 | +131 |
| 5 | +139 | +128 | +130 |
| 0 | +138 | +128 | +130 |
Consensus
weighted sourcesNo single book is treated as the answer. The fair estimate is a weighted blend, and the weights are part of what makes the estimate a model output rather than a quote.
| Source | Weight | Line |
|---|---|---|
| Sharp consensus | 0.40 | +130 |
| Latent market | 0.35 | +131 |
| Model fair | 0.25 | +128 |
Book dispersion
5 sampledWhere the sampled books actually sit. A stale quote frequently looks like the best number on the board, which is exactly why it is marked rather than silently included.
| Book | Quote | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Book A | +138 | included |
| Book B | +140 | best sampled |
| Book C | +137 | included |
| Book D | +136 | included |
| Book E | +150 | stale · excluded |
First movers
order carries information- 17:35Book C → +142
Moved first and held
- 17:38Book A → +141
Followed within three minutes
- 17:44Book B → +140
Followed, then paused
Information events
what the market reacted to- 17:55Lineup
Home lineup posted; expected batting order confirmed.
- 17:40Weather
Wind shift toward left field noted by the sample feed.
- 17:12Pitching
Probable starter confirmed, no change from the morning card.
Playable threshold
where the label changesThe same market at a different price is a different decision. This is the price at which the demo model's label changes, which is a more useful thing to know than the label at one price.
| If available at | State would be |
|---|---|
| +145 | BET |
| +138 | BET |
| +133 | WAIT |
| +128 | PASS |
| +124 | PASS |
Reasoning
market → stateMarket
The board opened at +145 and has ground to +138 across five of the six sampled books. That is directional movement, not a single outlier repricing.
Consensus
De-vigged sharp consensus sits at +130 and the latent estimate at +131. The board price is still behind both.
Divergence
Book B remains at +140 while the rest of the sample has moved through it. That gap is the entire reason this row is above threshold.
Persistence
The gap has survived roughly 20 minutes of the sample window. Edges that vanish inside one refresh are treated as noise.
Risk
One book in the sample is flagged stale at +150. A stale quote is excluded from consensus rather than counted as the best available number.
State
Score 82 clears the illustrative playable threshold of 75, so this row is labelled BET in the demo. That is a description of the model output, not a recommendation.
This is the same sequence described on the methodology page, applied to one row.
Decay
How long this would last
Synthetic decay illustration based on the demo half-life estimate for this row.
- Half-life
- 18 min
- Edge now
- +1.84 pts
- After 18 min
- +0.92 pts
- After 36 min
- +0.46 pts
Demo estimate
Why half-life is scored, not just reported
A large edge that decays in three minutes is usually worth less than a small one that holds for twenty, because the time it takes to notice, check, and act is not zero. Persistence is a scoring component for that reason.
Snapshot 23 Aug 2026, 18:05 UTC · Sample snapshot timestamp — fixed value, not a feed reading.